Still has numbers PDF Print E-mail
Sunday, 17 April 2016 14:21

BEHIND  THE  LINES

BY BOB JALDON

Los Angeles, CA. — There are only two elections that interests Filipinos — Philippine elections and U.S. elections — that’s because of our American colonial mentality that everything about the U.S. is good, even goods that are made in China. Let’s veer away from local (Zamboanga) politics and see at what’s happening in the land of milk and honey, the home of the brave and of the free.

In Wisconsin, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and Republican billionaire Donald Trump ran into a speed bump, raising doubts as to their staying power to be nominated. It is said that four out of 10 Republicans are scared of what Trump would do as president. Most Democrats feel that Clinton has a realistic agenda. Democrats also think that Clinton can easily defeat Trump in November, if the outspoken  billionaire snatches the Republican nomination over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

The next primaries will be held in New York on April 19 where Clinton and Trump are expected to rebound from a string of defeats. Clinton believes that a win in the Empire State will give her the decisive edge over her aging rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders, who was born in Brooklyn. The Clintons now live in New York.

Even if Sanders won in Wisconsin, it wasn’t enough for him to shake the advantage Clinton has built among the delegates. When unpledge “super-delegates are counted, Clinton’s lead will stretch to 1,712 delegates to Sanders’s 1,011 delegates. Either one will need 2,383 delegates to win the party nomination.

For Trump, the consequences of a New York loss to Cruz is more serious and becomes more complicated. But neither Cruz nor Ohio Gov. John Kasich are in a position to tally 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination. But they are doing their utmost best to deny Trump the majority. Going into the Wisconsin primary, Trump had 737 delegates; Cruz with 481; and Kasich with 143. Keeping Trump’s numbers below the 1,237 delegates he’ll need to win the nomination would lead to the first contested convention in four decades.

There’s a “civil war” among the Republicans. If no candidate arrives in Cleveland with a majority, more than half of the Republican primary voters say the nomination should go to the candidate with the most votes — just four of 10 say the convention delegates should decide. More than 8 in 10 say the leading candidate should get the nomination.

The last time the Republican nomination was in doubt at this stage was in 1980. USA Today reported that the race is guaranteed to run through the final primaries in California (that will give Titong San Juan the golden opportunity to vote for Clinton) and elsewhere on June 9, and perhaps even to the convention itself.

For the Democrats, there are 4,765 total delegates at stake. A candidate needs 2,383 delegates to be nominated. To date, there are already 2,795 delegates that have been tallied. Clinton has 1,740 to Sanders’s 1,055, not counting Wisconsin. The old man ain’t throwing in the towel yet as donors still keep on coming and until the the results of the New York primary are out. And, for the love of Mike, Wall Street hates him like a Durian fruit.

For Trump, New York will be the turning point. Cruz and Kasich are working hard to derail Trump from getting the nomination. His supporters say that Cruz is a “Trojan Horse being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump.”

My guess? Clinton and Trump will win. In November? The U.S. has its first Afro-American president for eight years. The latest hero introduced by the producers of Justice League of America movies was Wonder Woman.